The NRF has forecast 2025 US retail sales to grow 2.7–3.7 per cent year-over-year, reaching $5.42–$5.48 trillion, in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average.
Non-store and online sales are expected to rise 7–9 per cent.
GDP growth may fall below 2 per cent.
Despite inflation and policy uncertainty, strong jobs and income should sustain consumer spending.