UBS expects China’s GDP growth to slow to 4 per cent this year and 3 per cent in 2026 under the baseline scenario, assuming that the US hikes tariffs on China’s exports in September and China raises policy support in response.
Net exports may still contribute positively to GDP growth, but UBS expects China’s exports to fall sharply in 2026, bearing down on manufacturing capex and prices.
Net exports may still contribute positively to GDP growth, but UBS expects China’s exports to fall sharply in 2026, bearing down on manufacturing capex and prices.
