China’s real GDP is estimated to grow between 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent this year—about half of the 5.2 per cent growth figure the National Bureau of Statistics reported in Q3 2025, US-based Rhodium Group said.
For domestic demand to lift China above 2-per cent GDP growth in 2026, Beijing must reverse the systemic causes of household and business malaise or pile on costly demand subsidies, it said.